That’s right cottage season 2016 is upon us and the ice-out date pools are taking shape.

Facts:

  • Top of our dock level sits at 384″
  • In April 2013 the water peaked at 402″ (ie major flood)
  • In April 2014 the water peaked at 389″ (still flooded)
  • “Water levels generally begin to rise on their own through November with higher precipitation. The MNR however begin a larger winter drawdown beginning in early December through to late March”

2015 Facts:

  • The MNR drawdown hit the lowest point on April 2 at 339”.  Here’s the water level chart to prove it

Lake Muskoka Water Level 2015

  • In April 2015 the water peaked at “385” (as close to normal as we’ve seen in years)
  • That’s 46″ of water, almost 4 feet, pouring into the lake in less than a month
  • In September 2015 the water suddenly dropped for the trout spawn to 365″ (ridiculous for boating)

2016 Predictions

  • On March 9 we hit the lowest drawdown market yet at 357″ as you can see below
  • 7 warm days later (March 16, 2016) and todays lake level is 363″ (ie 6″ higher)

Lake Muskoka Water Level 2016

  • The ice is already started to melt and going to be long gone by the traditional April 21st date
  • The majority of the run off has already disappeared from main areas but there is still snow in the bush to the north ie Algonquin Park which is where this watershed starts
  • There is ALOT of rain in the forecast for April  (counted 7 days of sunshine in the forecast total)
  • Currently the lake level is up 24″, or 2 feet, over this time last year

Will the Lake Flood? Jury is Out.  Stay Tuned

Update March 29

So the lake level has risen and the flood warnings have commenced (SURPRISE).

March 29 2016 Lake Muskoka Lake Level

We’re now at 375″,  it’s been frigid at night so that snow upstream, well, its still there and there is no shortage of rain in the forecast.  With 9″ to go until flood this has disaster written all over it.

#monitoring